Prop Firm Challenge Calculator (Pass Probability)

How it works

What this calculator does

It estimates your odds of passing a prop firm challenge by simulating thousands of trading sequences. Instead of a single average, it runs a Monte Carlo: each run plays out a string of randomized trades using your edge and risk, then checks whether you reached the profit target before tripping a daily loss limit or the maximum drawdown.

How the simulation works

You supply your win rate, reward-to-risk ratio, risk per trade, the profit target, the daily loss limit and the max drawdown — all as percentages. Each simulated trade wins +risk% × RR or loses −risk% based on your win rate, and equity is tracked trade by trade across many simulated accounts.

Worked example

Say you win 45% of trades at 2:1, risking 1% each, aiming for a 10% target with a 5% daily loss limit and 10% max drawdown. Across, say, 10,000 simulated runs the tool might report a pass rate near 30% — and separately show how often a run failed by hitting the daily limit versus the drawdown, so you can see which rule is most likely to end you.

What it deliberately does not do

The result is a probability, not a promise — it assumes your inputs are accurate and stable, which real trading rarely is. Industry reports suggest only around 5–10% of challenge accounts ever pass, and every firm's rules differ. Treat this as a planning estimate for education, not investment advice or a guarantee.